The 2024 election is shaping up to be a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
But a wildcard could potentially shake up the race next year.
And Donald Trump was stunned when he discovered this unexpected problem for 2024.
The 2024 Presidential Election appears to be another contest that will come down to the wire between Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.
A third-party candidate could make the difference between winning and losing for either Presidential candidate in a tight contest in battleground states.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the heir to the Kennedy political dynasty, is running an Independent campaign for President after he abandoned his Democrat Primary challenge to Biden.
The conventional wisdom is that Kennedy Jr. and other Independent and third-party candidates on the ballot are more of a threat to Biden than Trump.
But according to a surprising poll, Kennedy Jr. could be a threat to Trump in battleground states next year.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. eats into Donald Trump’s lead in key battleground states
CNN data reporter Harry Enten pointed to a New York Times/Siena College poll that found Donald Trump’s lead in key battleground states over Joe Biden was erased by the presence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot.
The poll found that Trump was leading Biden in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Michigan.
Biden had a slim lead over Trump in Wisconsin that was within the poll’s margin of error.
Kennedy Jr. drew a shocking amount of support for an Independent candidate when he was included in the polling.
“Look at these loads of likely voters choosing RFK in key swing states, 24% in Arizona, 23% in Georgia, 25% in Michigan, 19% for Nevada, 21% in Pennsylvania, 21% in Wisconsin,” Enten explained. “High teens, low-to-mid 20’s across the board and that is historic because independents who polled over 20% within a year of the election, we got RFK Jr., there hasn’t been anybody polling this high this late since Ross Perot in ’92, John Anderson in ’80, George Wallace in ’68 and of course all those folks ended up with at least high single digits if not all the way up to near 20% in the case of Ross Perot.”
Enten was asked what impact Kennedy Jr. would have on the potential Trump-Biden race if the two squared off in a rematch next November.
“Yeah, remember those New York Times polls that we spoke about earlier this week and they were such bad news for Joe Biden,” Enten said. “But look at this. The Biden versus Trump margin without Kennedy, look at that, we see Trump up by five in Arizona, five in Pennsylvania, 11 points in Nevada. You add Kennedy, look at this. You end up with a tie in Arizona, a tie in Pennsylvania, and that lead gets cut down to six points in Nevada. So Kennedy could in fact be a spoiler for Donald Trump at least according to this poll.”
Kennedy Jr. is running an unorthodox campaign by courting conservative voters at events like the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).
A major challenge for his campaign is getting ballot access in states where he is running as an Independent.
He faces a struggle trying to collect signatures and fulfill other requirements to make the ballot without the backing of a Party.
But Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could be the biggest potential wildcard hanging over the 2024 election.